Animal Pharm2015年的十大预测

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Animal Pharm's 10 predictions for2015

By JosephHarvey

Published: 13 January 2015 11:24 AM

According toMark Twain: 'Prophesy is a good line of business but it is full of risks.' Withthis in mind, Animal Pharm has tentatively put together some predictions forthe coming year with some of its contributors. Please bear in mind theoverlying proviso: Expect the unexpected.

1. M&A willcontinue but not at record-breaking pace

Last year saw the most money ever spent on animal health M&A deals. And thiswas just the confirmed fees.

It is extremely unlikely the industrywill be quite as active in 2015. However, deals will continue to be plentiful.Expect Elanco to have a quieter year as it digests the Novartis Animal Healthacquisition.

Acquisitions will continue across allanimal health product sectors and geographies, with vaccines being a soughtafter technology and China remaining the key nation for manufacturingexpansion.

G. Steven Burrill of Burrill Media saidof the wider healthcare market: "The unprecedented IPO and M&A activitythis year will make 2014 one for the record books and unlikely to ever besurpassed. While we expect 2015 to be another strong year for the sector withrobust financial markets and dealmaking, we do expect financing activity toslow as companies put to work all of the money that's been raised. But withimportant new drugs expected to be approved, attention will shift away from thepromise of companies to how well they execute."

2. Zoetis will have to fend off takeover overtones

The previous prediction could prove tobe misguided should Zoetis succumb to takeover pressure, resulting in thelargest acquisition scramble the sector has seen.

In 2014, the industry saw activistinvestor William Ackman join Zoetis' shareholders, sparking sale speculation. However,the firm's 'poison pill' strategy showed that Zoetis is not so keen on the ideaof a takeover and is taking measures to protect itself.

Animal Pharm predicts that Zoetis will remainindependent by the end of the year but it could be a bumpy ride if Mr Ackmandecides to increase his stake.

3. Merial will strengthen through purchases

One firm that should be hitting theM&A scene is Merial. Through the backing of its parent company Sanofi,Merial made two purchases towards the end of December. Expect this to continuein 2015.

Other established companies that couldbe making acquisitions this year include Ceva Santé Animale (as it closes in onthe industry's top five firms), Phibro Animal Health and Vétoquinol.

4. Big Pharma will acquire a biotech company

During 2014, the race for innovation gotmuch closer. While the top 10 animal health firms are trying to revitalizetheir product portfolios, the sector's biotechnology start-ups are inchingcloser to commercialization.

In previous decades, blockbuster drugswere the forte of 'Big Pharma'. However, as the conveyor belt of game-changershas slowed down, the biotechs could be the new source of innovation.

So expect one of the leading firms makea play for a small developer of companion animal drugs, with firms such asAratana Therapeutics, Kindred Biosciences, VetDC, Jaguar Animal Health,Parnell, Ark Animal Health and CanFel Therapeutics viable targets.

Alternatively, if acquisitions do notoccur, a lucrative distribution deal like the one between Virbac and Nexvetcould be in line.（？？）

The industry will have to wait until2016 until the biotechs start achieving their first significant sales.

5. Animal health IPOs will dry up

Last year, Parnell, Ouro Fino SaudéAnimale and Phibro Animal Health all completed IPOs. Jaguar Animal Healthpostponed its offering, while Ark Animal Health's IPO is still pending.

While Australian pet therapeutics firmNexvet is set to list on the Nasdaq in2015, Animal Pharm will be surprised if there are manyother animal health IPOs in 2015 as the initial wave of investment dries up.

However, this is no bad thing for theindustry when Animal Pharm's next prediction is taken intoaccount.

6. Investment in animal health will continue

Even though IPOs may subside, animalhealth companies will continue to receive the backing of venture capitalistsand private equity in 2015.

Nexvet, SmartVet, Kane Biotech, JaguarAnimal Health and Advanced Animal Diagnostics all secured investment in 2015,proving animal health funding was no post-Zoetis flash in the pan.

Dr Stan Baker, a lawyer with HuschBlackwell in the US, said: "To prognosticate is to open oneself up to ridicule.Nevertheless, 2015 should be a good year for animal health investment.

"The initial avalanche ofinvestment is over. The quiescence we are currently in provides time forinvestors and analysts to take a breath, get more comfortable with the nuancesof the industry, and realize that a setback for one pre-revenue company shouldnot taint other companies in the space, particularly those that arepost-revenue with robust product pipelines.

"There are several promising pre-and post-revenue animal health companies in the pharma, diagnostic, and digitalspaces poised for growth or market entry. I look forward to watching them entera maturing market in 2015."

7. Technology everywhere

Dr Sandeep Juneja and his colleagues at www.animalhealthindia.com believe the increasing use ofnext-generation technology in the animal health field is still evolving.

According to Dr Juneja: "Like allother industries, animal health is also witnessing an increased importance andadoption of innovative technologies and computing devices. As mobile devicesand tablets continue to proliferate and mobiles become the 'first screen', many applications are moving to mobile devices for quick decision making.

"From a plethora of apps for dairyand poultry farmers to 'wearables' for companion animals and dairy cowsconnected to mobiles, technology is increasingly at the disposal of ourcustomers in bringing high-value solutions at heightened convenience.

"Leading organizations will need toplan and adapt to the changing habits and needs of the end users. This may alsoinvolve increased adoption of the analytics to decipher vast amounts ofstructured and unstructured data from diverse set of customers and othersources.

"Invisible analytics may wellbecome all pervasive so as to decipher and deliver the right information to theright individual at right time for right decision making."

Rich Shuler, co-founder and chiefoperating officer of US start-up AgLogica, recently told AnimalPharm:"Wearables is a hot space. The rapidly reducing cost of sensors andcomputing power has enabled wearable technologies to be extended into theanimal health and nutrition space. Our technology can provide objective,quantified data to the vet. This type of real-world metrics hasn't been seenbefore."

8. Marketing budget reallocations

Dr Juneja continued: "Another trendwe envisage for 2015 and beyond is the evolution of the marketing mix andconsequent re-allocation of marketing resources.

"Interactions with our customersand veterinarians now encompass a variety of avenues ranging from emails totexts to instant messaging to dedicated web portals to increasingly'occasional' detailing.

"As competition intensifies andcustomers and veterinarians become increasingly glued to their always on,anywhere and everywhere devices – marketers have a new challenge as well anopportunity to engage with their customers.

"Traditional marketing long backgave way to 'omni-channel' or 'multi-channel' marketing creating a uniqueopportunity to engage with customers seamlessly across channels but also achallenge in determining the appropriate spends across channels.

"As highly aware and connectedcustomers become knowledgeable in seeking out necessary information, marketerswill have to evolve and alter their marketing mixes and budgets to best servesuch customers."

9. Preventative therapies

With a spotlight on the judicious use ofantimicrobials, the inevitable opportunity for improved vaccine technology willbe just as imminent in 2015 as last year.

Expect innovation in vaccine technologyfor prevention of African swine fever, bovine tuberculosis, foot and mouthdisease, avian influenza and porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome

Dr Juneja said: "From treatments totimely interventions to eventually proactive prevention, things are turningfull circle and animal health companies will have to lead customers on the'path to prevention'.

"Innovative vaccines, convenientand compliant dosing schedules, precision nutrition and supplements and increasedsharing of knowledge with customers will be a key in higher customersatisfaction and retention.

"Increased consumer awareness onfood safety concerns, visibly active regulatory authorities and demandingprocessors will only ensure that both producers and animal health organizationsevolve their practices and offerings on the path towards prevention."

10. One company will win the PEDv vaccine race

It seems to be a two-horse race betweenZoetis and Harrisvaccines to receive full approval for a vaccine against theeconomically damaging porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDv). Both haveconditional approval for a PEDv vaccine.

Should Iowa-based Harrisvaccines win, itcould spell a significant victory for a company that was relatively unknownbeforehand. It could also signal a prominent milestone in the growth of aserious player in US vaccine production (or the next acquisition target).

However, if Zoetis succeeds in landingthe first approval it would be testament to the swiftness of the firm's R&Ddepartment to produce a product for this relatively new threat.

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